Opposition bloc considers minority government after polls show lead

The opposition bloc is considering a minority government after most polls show it ahead of the outgoing coalition. The Zionist parties seeking change fall short of the 61 seats needed to govern under their current agreements, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies are also far from a majority in many surveys. The electoral threshold could shift the seat distribution, and a small number of votes might decide whether Israel gets a new government or faces another round of turmoil.

Gadi Eisenkot wants to lead the bloc and be its main candidate to form the next government. He rejects serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation arrangement, and has raised the idea of a minority government if the change-seeking parties win 58 or 59 seats. Under that plan, a government would be sworn in after winning a confidence vote without permanent backing from 61 MKs, and would then try to widen its parliamentary base.

Legally, swearing in a government requires a majority in the confidence vote, not 61 votes in favor, so abstentions could allow it to take office. A constructive vote of no confidence against an incumbent government is different, since it requires 61 MKs to back an alternative. The minority scenario could therefore matter while a government is being formed, but it would not let the bloc remove a sitting Netanyahu government by simple majority.

Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from Ra'am, but no agreed formula exists for carrying out the plan. Liberman categorically rejects a minority government, even a transitional one, and insists on a Zionist majority from the start. A unity government with Netanyahu is also unacceptable to him, and he says another election would be better than a government that fails his conditions.

Bennett and Yair Lapid, who head the Beyachad list, likewise demand a Zionist government and refuse to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Democrats chairman Yair Golan has not ruled out cooperating with Ra'am. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended with a joint call to raise voter turnout but did not settle their disagreement. Leadership rivalry also continues, with Eisenkot hoping to head the largest party and Bennett viewing himself as a natural candidate because of his experience as prime minister.