Israelis Weigh Netanyahu’s Legacy in Tight Election

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in a contest defined less by traditional ideological divides and more by a direct referendum on one man. Benjamin Netanyahu first assumed the premiership three decades ago and has occupied the seat for 19 of those years. The political landscape has fractured into two primary camps: those supporting the incumbent and those seeking his removal. Current polls indicate the race is neck and neck, leaving the outcome uncertain until the final counts are tallied.

The leading challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, represents a distinct shift in tone. A former chief of staff for the Israel Defense Forces and the son of working-class Moroccan Jews, Eisenkot entered politics only four years ago. His party, Yashar, translates to straight or direct, reflecting his call for a nation without lies and the implementation of US-style term limits for prime ministers. At a rally in Modi'in, supporters praised his plain style. Noa Sadeh, 56, expressed fatigue with politicians who know how to talk and stated she wants someone who will do the doing part.

The opposition alliance includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both are figures from the nationalist right who previously collaborated closely with Netanyahu before their alliances dissolved. On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is pitching its platform by arguing that Netanyahu drifts left. Yishai Fleisher, speaking in Bet Shemesh, advocated for more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, the death penalty, and expanded weapons access for Jewish civilians.

Netanyahu has framed the final weeks of the campaign around a binary choice between the right and Palestine. His posters place opposition leaders alongside party heads representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute about a fifth of the population. The central tension involves whether the anti-Netanyahu Jewish parties, who are forecast to outpoll his bloc but lack a Knesset majority, will rely on mainly Arab parties for coalition support. Pro-Netanyahu media outlets, particularly Channel 14, have maintained pressure on opponents, leading to a moment when host Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan monkey. Eisenkot’s team noted he did not repeat the slur, a move admirers saw as restraint.

The closeness of the race puzzles many observers given the significant challenges facing the incumbent. The 7 October 2023 massacres occurred on Netanyahu’s watch, and his war in Gaza killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, of whom Israel states a third were Hamas combatants. The conflict did not eradicate Hamas, and Israel’s international standing has suffered. Additionally, the prime minister faces fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court, the Qatargate affair, and an ongoing corruption trial. Oded Levi, a 2022 Netanyahu voter who attended an Eisenkot rally, said whoever was prime minister then is responsible.

Netanyahu’s durability rests on a loyal base that has withstood reports that he received credible warnings of an attack. His allies promote the claim that military and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark, though this account is viewed as unfounded. He is also regarded as a skilled coalition builder expected to outmaneuver rivals in post-election talks. Opposition hopes are bolstered by liberal, secular expatriates flying home to vote, a demographic that pollsters may not capture fully. A state ceremony marking the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin saw Netanyahu stay away and send a low-ranking minister. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, expressed optimism about a regional strategic process for security.

The word peace has been complicated for many Israelis, yet it has not vanished. A video of young Israelis singing Shir LaShalom at a Negev music festival gained wide circulation. For some, that image and the full flights home suggest the era of Netanyahu may be nearing its end.